Assessment of Future Scenarios for Hydrological System Restoration in Hawizeh Marsh, Southern Iraq

Abstract

Objective: This study evaluates future scenarios for restoring the Hawizeh Marsh hydrological system by analysing hydrological and climatic variables during 1990–2024 and developing three future scenarios for 2025–2034 using time series models and multiple linear regression.

Methodology: A quantitative analytical approach was adopted using data on river discharges feeding the Hawizeh Marsh, air temperature, rainfall, evaporation, and inundation area. Time series models were employed to forecast hydrological and climatic variables, while multiple linear regression was used to develop future scenarios and evaluate model performance statistically.

Results: The multiple linear regression model demonstrated good predictive performance, with a coefficient of determination (R² = 0.566), an adjusted coefficient of determination (Adjusted R² = 0.458), and statistical significance (Sig. = 0.003). The reference scenario projected a decline in inundation area from 524.30 to 249.10 km², whereas the pessimistic scenario predicted a reduction from 393.24 to 186.86 km² owing to continued decreases in water releases and the cessation of Karkheh River discharge. By contrast, the optimistic scenario projected a maximum inundation area of 629.18 km² in 2025, stabilising at 298.97 km² by 2034 because of improved water inflows, favourable climatic conditions, and exceptional flooding within the Karkheh River Basin.

Conclusions: Environmental flows and integrated water resources management are the key drivers of hydrological restoration in the Hawizeh Marsh. Integrating time series modelling with multiple linear regression within a future scenario framework provides a reliable scientific basis for strategic planning and sustainable wetland management in arid and semi-arid regions